March 2026 – Supply Chain Alert for PIR Sensors
Supply chain analysts are warning of potential shortages of pyroelectric infrared sensors as the automotive industry prepares for new child presence detection mandates. The combined demand from automotive, smart home, and industrial markets may exceed current production capacity.
The Demand Surge
Automotive Demand (New)
- US regulation: ~15 million new vehicles/year × 2-3 sensors per vehicle = 30-45 million sensors/year
- Europe regulation (expected 2027): similar numbers
- China regulation (expected 2028): 25+ million vehicles/year
- Total automotive by 2028: 100-150 million sensors/year
Existing Demand
- Smart lighting: ~450 million sensors/year (2025)
- Security systems: ~300 million sensors/year
- Building automation: ~180 million sensors/year
- Consumer/IoT: ~270 million sensors/year
- Total existing: ~1.2 billion sensors/year
Growth Projections
- 2025: 1.2 billion units
- 2026: 1.3 billion units (+8%)
- 2027: 1.5 billion units (+15%)
- 2028: 1.8 billion units (+20%) – driven by automotive
- 2029: 2.0 billion units (+11%)
- 2030: 2.2 billion units (+10%)
Production Capacity
Current global production capacity is estimated at 1.4 billion units per year, with major manufacturers:
- Panasonic: 350 million/year
- Murata: 280 million/year
- Excelitas: 150 million/year
- Chinese manufacturers (combined): 500 million/year
- Others: 120 million/year
By 2028, capacity must increase by at least 30% to meet projected demand of 1.8 billion units.
Lead Times
Lead times for PIR sensors are already extending:
- Standard HC-SR501 modules: 4-6 weeks (up from 2 weeks in 2024)
- Panasonic EKMB series: 12-16 weeks (up from 8 weeks)
- Custom automotive sensors: 20+ weeks for qualified parts
Price Pressures
Analysts predict price increases across the board:
- Commodity sensors: +10-15% in 2026-2027
- Mid-range sensors: +5-10%
- Automotive-grade: +3-5% (already higher margins)
Manufacturer Responses
Major manufacturers are responding to the expected shortage:
Panasonic
Announced a $200 million expansion of its PIR sensor production facility in Malaysia, expected to add 50 million units/year capacity by 2027.
Murata
Expanding production in Japan and considering a new facility in Vietnam to serve automotive customers.
Excelitas
Focusing on high-end automotive and industrial sensors, adding capacity at its German facility.
Chinese Manufacturers
Rapidly expanding production, but quality concerns remain for automotive applications requiring AEC-Q certification.
Impact on Different Market Segments
Automotive OEMs
Securing long-term supply agreements with qualified suppliers. Some are considering vertical integration (producing their own sensors).
Smart Home Companies
May face allocation as suppliers prioritize higher-margin automotive contracts. May need to qualify alternative suppliers.
Hobbyists and Makers
Likely to see price increases and potential shortages of HC-SR501 modules as production capacity is diverted to higher-value products.
Advice for Buyers
- Forecast accurately: Place orders with longer lead times
- Qualify multiple suppliers: Don’t rely on a single source
- Consider long-term agreements: Lock in pricing and allocation
- Evaluate alternative technologies: mmWave radar where appropriate
- Design for flexibility: Use sensors that can be sourced from multiple manufacturers
Conclusion
The PIR sensor industry faces unprecedented demand growth over the next five years. While manufacturers are expanding capacity, shortages and price increases are likely in the 2026-2028 timeframe, particularly for automotive-grade components. Buyers should plan accordingly.